By Dansu Peter The recent political crisis in the Lagos State House of Assembly has once again highlighted the intricate power dynamics in...
By Dansu Peter
Had Sanwo-Olu taken the path of Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara—who turned against his political godfather, Nyesom Wike, just months after assuming office—Tinubu’s long-standing grip on Lagos politics could have faced its most significant challenge yet. The Lagos State House of Assembly, which has historically been an instrument of control for Tinubu, has been the backbone of his political dominance since he left office as governor in 2007. Without the loyalty of the Assembly members, Tinubu would not have been able to maintain his influence over the state's leadership for nearly two decades.
Tinubu’s Hold on Lagos Politics
Tinubu’s political dominance in Lagos stems from his ability to control the ruling party’s structure, from the grassroots to the highest levels of government. When he left office in 2007, he ensured that the political machinery remained firmly under his grip. Whether it was the Alliance for Democracy (AD), the Action Congress (AC), the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), or the All Progressives Congress (APC), Tinubu maintained an unshakable influence over the party's internal workings.
Even when factions like the Justice Forum (JF) and The Mandate Group—led by key political figures like Baba Hamzat and Rauf Aregbesola—emerged, Tinubu ensured that both camps remained under his control. This absolute authority meant that no one could rise to power in Lagos, even as a local government councilor, without his endorsement.
Past governors who dared to challenge this structure, such as Babatunde Fashola and Akinwunmi Ambode, learned the hard way that the state’s Assembly was Tinubu’s ultimate weapon. Despite Fashola’s remarkable performance as governor, he was sidelined after falling out with Tinubu. Ambode, who initially believed that the power and wealth of the governor’s office would shield him, was swiftly removed from contention for a second term when he attempted to defy Tinubu.
Sanwo-Olu: The Omoluabi of Lagos Politics
Unlike Fubara, who rebelled against Wike, Sanwo-Olu has chosen the path of loyalty, embodying the Yoruba concept of Omoluabi—a person of integrity, respect, and good character. Despite being in his second term and having no constitutional need for Tinubu’s endorsement for re-election, Sanwo-Olu resisted any temptation to challenge his political mentor.
In the recent House of Assembly crisis, where Speaker Obasa was removed by 35 out of 40 lawmakers, Sanwo-Olu had every political advantage to assert his authority. With the Assembly’s support, financial resources at his disposal, and no need for Tinubu’s backing in 2027, he could have easily defied the presidency. Yet, he chose restraint, preventing a full-scale political battle that could have redefined Lagos politics.
Sanwo-Olu’s decision ensured that Tinubu’s influence remained intact. If he had chosen to ‘Fubara’ Tinubu, yesterday’s events—where the Assembly was forced to reinstate Obasa—would not have played out the way they did. The fact that 35 lawmakers were overruled highlights Tinubu’s enduring dominance over Lagos politics, a power he has wielded for over two decades through the state Assembly.
The Tinubu Factor in Lagos Politics
The return of Obasa as Speaker was not just about legislative politics; it was a reaffirmation of Tinubu’s unchallenged control. For the first time in Lagos’ political history, the Assembly attempted to remove a Speaker without Tinubu’s approval—a move that was swiftly reversed by the president’s intervention.
If Sanwo-Olu had backed the lawmakers, the crisis could have escalated into a full-blown political rebellion, potentially ending Tinubu’s status as the godfather of Lagos politics. However, by choosing loyalty over defiance, Sanwo-Olu ensured that Tinubu’s grip on Lagos remained firm.
Sanwo-Olu’s Legacy of Loyalty
Despite having the resources and support to challenge Tinubu, Sanwo-Olu’s decision to remain loyal is a testament to his political discipline. Unlike Fubara, who has openly confronted Wike, Sanwo-Olu understands that political longevity in Lagos requires patience and respect for the existing power structure.
His decision not only solidified his position as a trusted ally of Tinubu but also reinforced the tradition of loyalty in Lagos politics. Had he chosen otherwise, the outcome could have been drastically different, potentially marking the beginning of the end for Tinubu’s political empire.
The recent crisis in the Lagos State House of Assembly was more than just a power struggle within the legislature—it was a test of loyalty for Governor Sanwo-Olu. While he had every reason to assert his authority, he chose to uphold the Yoruba value of Omoluabi, proving that he is not just a politician but a statesman who values long-term alliances over short-term gains.
In the end, Tinubu can breathe a sigh of relief—Sanwo-Olu is no Fubara.
Dansu, Peter Zuntepo is a social commentator, blogger, media personality, former aspirant of Lagos State House for Badagry Constituency II and online Publisher of Badagry Today
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